My previous BTC/USD signal on 1st May was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the price first reached the support level identified at $59,544.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75% per trade.
- Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $62,013, $61,468, or $60,765.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $65,722 or $68,507.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis almost one week ago that the best opportunity was likely to be a bearish breakdown following two consecutive lower hourly closes below $59,000. Unfortunately, this was not a great call if followed strictly, as the second bearish hourly candlestick would have got you in a short trade near the low of the day, although the day’s closing price was not much higher so any loss should have been quite small.
The price has been rising ever since this bottom and so the technical picture now has become more bullish. This is a mixed recovery happening right now in risky assets which will include Bitcoin, and Bitcoin does seem to be being bid.
It looks like we are currently seeing a bearish consolidation which will be more likely to produce a move higher than lower over the near term. However, we are some distance from either support or resistance so it is hard to pinpoint an entry point. The round number at $63,000 might be suitable although I have not marked it as key support.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the US Dollar.
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