- The euro initially fell a little bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but then turned around to rally towards the 200 day EMA.
- We are still below the top of the massive Friday candlestick that had formed and then pulled back.
- So, with that being said, I think you've got a situation where it makes a lot of sense that we would see signs of exhaustion right around this 200 day EMA.
That being said, I think you also have to pay attention to the fact that this is a market that is moving almost solely on the U.S. bond markets as the interest rate differential between the two economies will be paid close attention to, quite closely by the market. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that the ECB is likely to cut rates much quicker than the Federal Reserve.
There are still sellers above
So, I still think you have a situation where there are going to be sellers above. And if that's the case, we could drive the EUR/USD market down to the 1.07 level. Breaking above the top of the candlestick from the Friday session does open up a move to the 1.0875 level, but I think that is more or less like climbing uphill at this point.
If the U.S. yields continue to rise, that will put pressure on this pair, and it'll go lower. This will literally move lockstep with the bond market. That's what it's been doing for a while now. So, make sure to pay attention to the yields in real time, as it can give you a bit of a heads up as to where you want to be in general.
You also have to keep in mind that geopolitical risks out there could have people running towards the US dollar as well, despite the fact that the United States is borrowing $1 trillion every 90 days at this point. This of course isn’t a strong point to the greenback, but at the same time, it seems like a lot of people are looking for the idea of “interest rates.”
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