- The Japanese Yen is now being sold despite its firm rise last week after two cases of suspected Bank of Japan intervention.
- The best Forex opportunities to be long of the Japanese Yen look likely to be in the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY crosses.
Japanese Yen Index (JXY): Technical Analysis
The Japanese Yen has clearly been in a downwards trend since at least mid-March, and arguably since the start of 2024.
There are no clear chart patterns or other technical formations affecting the price action now, but the Yen has made a firm decline so far today. I argue that currency crosses which make large directional movements in one direction are likely to rebound in the opposite direction over the following week, and I think this is what is happening here today in all the Yen crosses.
It is worth noting that there is a long-term bearish trend in the Yen that is going to support Yen selling moving the price lower.
The table below shows that the British Pound and the Australian Dollar have been the strongest major currencies so far today, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest. This suggests today, may be more of a cross day, as the US Dollar is more mixed after falling last week.
Japanese Yen Index (JXY): Fundamental Analysis
The Japanese Yen has several fundamental and sentimental reasons for its recent and current weakness:
- The Bank of Japan’s suspected interventions in favour of the Yen last week have depressed the price successfully to some extent, but markets remain sceptical that the Bank can truly win this fight. It is much easier for a central bank to weaken than strengthen its own currency.
- Questions remain as to how rapidly the Bank of Japan will be able to truly ditch its very accommodative monetary policy, despite a recent switch to positive rates.
- The Yen’s recent strong descents into new 34-year lows attract trend traders as Yen sellers.
Let’s now look at the major Yen currency pair and crosses.
USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis
The Yen has weakened against the US Dollar in the USD/JPY pair, although the US Dollar is not relatively strong, so the upwards movement has not been very extended.
The suspected intervention by the Bank of Japan during the earlier Asian session sent this currency pair 450 pips lower, like the 550-pip drop seen last Monday. However, the support level at ¥153.87 held and produced a bullish bounce.
This price rise ran into resistance confluent with the major round number at ¥154.00.
There will probably be better vehicles for trading the Yen short today, but if the price can get established above ¥154.02 later today, it will probably continue to rise.
EUR/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis
We see a similar picture here in the EUR/JPY currency cross to the USD/JPY currency pair, but the situation is arguably more bearish despite the EUR being stronger than the USD, as the price remains well below the upper trend line of the descending wedge chart pattern.
There is a bullish sign – the price has gotten established above the former resistance level at ¥165.00.
There is not much sentiment around the Euro right now.
A long trade will become more attractive only once the price is trading above ¥166.36.
GBP/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis
The situation here in the GBP/JPY cross is very similar to the technical picture in the EUR/JPY currency cross. However this is more bullish as the price action is more firmly bullish, and there is no overhead resistance except the upper trend line of the descending wedge chart pattern. This trend line is currently quite confluent with ¥194.00.
I would enter a long trade if we get two consecutive hourly closes above ¥194.00 later.
Other Yen Crosses: Technical Analysis
The natural next crosses to look at for the Yen are the AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and CHF/JPY crosses as these had the best placings of support and resistance levels to produce relatively unobstructed moves higher.
In the AUD/JPY cross, the price is reaching the key resistance level at ¥102.00 so traders looking for a long trade entry might want to wait for two consecutive higher hourly closes above that level before entering any new trade.
In the CAD/JPY cross, the price seems to be running into new resistance at ¥112.50 so traders looking for a long trade entry might want to wait for two consecutive higher hourly closes above that level before entering any new trade.
In the CHF/JPY cross, the price seems to be running into new resistance at ¥170.00 so traders looking for a long trade entry might want to wait for two consecutive higher hourly closes above that and the next resistance level at ¥170.63 before entering any new trade.
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