- The EUR/USD went into the weekend near the 1.08066 ratio, which was the low for the week and a retest of depths seen on the 1st of March.
- Trading in the EUR/USD like all other major currency pairs teamed against the USD has been difficult the past month, in fact Forex has been volatile in many respects since the start of 2024.
The volatility last week should make traders a bit nervous about the potential results for the coming week. Shifting behavioral sentiment in financial institutions continues to cause whipsaw price action. Trading the EUR/USD has been comparable to riding a surfboard on big waves. When the momentum of the trend has felt easy to interpret the currency pair has been comfortable, but upon data announcements which continue to spring forth surprises risk taking tactics suddenly become chaotic.
Growth and More Inflation Data for the EUR/USD Later This Week
As Monday’s trading begins in the EUR/USD, day traders will be keen to see where sentiment generates direction. The currency pair is certainly testing lows, but if current support levels do prove vulnerable speculators should keep in mind the EUR/USD did trade at lower values in February. The EUR/USD did test the 1.07000 ratio on the 14th of February.
Sentiment however regarding the USD is likely better at least for the moment then it was in the middle of the previous month. Financial institutions still believe the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates a couple of times, and perhaps even believe the Fed’s optimism of three Federal Funds Rate cuts are still possible. The U.S will present GDP numbers this coming Thursday and Core PCE Price Index data this Friday.
Technical and Fundamental EUR/USD Sentiment Colliding
The past week of trading produced a high of nearly 1.09450 on Thursday of this week, but something certainly caused a fast downturn in the EUR/USD late on Thursday and throughout Friday before the weekend arrived. It would be easy to say behavioral sentiment regarding Fed outlook is nervous, but technically the highs hit on Thursday did seem to be a bit too optimistic and may have also sparked selling.
Traders should not get too comfortable early this week with the thought all of the volatility is now finished. There are likely more gyrations to come in the EUR/USD, this Tuesday the CB Consumer Confidence report will come from the States. If this number comes in stronger than expected it would set up another roadblock for bullish sentiment in the EUR/USD. The 1.08000 price and above may be psychologically important equilibrium presently for both technical and fundamental traders.
- If the EUR/USD were to fall below the 1.08000 level early this week it would be surprising perhaps for traders with bullish sentiment, but technically merely be testing lows seen in February.
- And a lower price in the currency pair price would certainly be displaying nervous sentiment still lingers regarding Fed outlook, and a potentially stronger USD could be contemplated over the near-term.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07475 to 1.09545
Traders looking for reversals higher from the EUR/USD because it is traversing mid-term support levels should be careful. There seems to be enough nervous sentiment in the broad Forex market that could still spur on some additional selling as the week starts. If the Consumer Confidence report can come in weaker from the U.S on Tuesday, this may set up bullish traders with enough confidence to pursue buying positions if they are fundamentally inclined, but they should remember growth numbers will come on Thursday via the GDP.
The inflation numbers on Friday will be important, but speculators need to understand that even though the Federal Reserve views the PCE Price Index as important its results may not sway the opinions of financial institutions which are suspicious regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. Traders need to brace for more volatility this coming week and use take profit and stop loss orders wisely so they can avoid more EUR/USD storms.
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