Stellar Lumens has had a rough day during the trading session on Thursday as Russia has decided to invade Ukraine. This obviously had a major “risk off” type of attitude flowing through the markets, and a result, I think that it makes sense that stellar continues to struggle in general. After all, it is pretty far out on the risk appetite curve, and then as a result the market simply do not put money into something like this.
That being said, we have pulled back significantly but have also seen a little bit of a bounce towards the end of the day. This suggests that there are still people out there willing to buy this market, so we could get a little bit of a relief rally. With that being said, I would pay special attention to the $0.20 level, as it will be an area that has a certain amount of “market memory” attached to it, as we had gone sideways there previously. Furthermore, stellar does tend to move in $0.10 increments, so it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see quite a bit of pressure there.
Keep in mind that Bitcoin needs to rally significantly as well, because it does drive the rest of the crypto market. Currently, monetary policy is tightening a bit and it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see crypto markets and other risk appetite related projects pay the price. However, we also have to worry about geopolitical concerns, because quite frankly most of the money will go looking into the safe assets such as treasuries. Yes, I realize that most people involved in crypto believe that they are completely detached from the global monetary system, but that is not true at all. If the last couple of months have taught you anything, then you should have learned that.
A breakdown below the $0.15 level opens up the possibility of stellar melting down. At that point, it would almost certainly enter its own crypto winter, meaning that we would not have much hope for a big move anytime soon but those of you who believe in the longer-term project may find it a nice opportunity to pick up a little bit of value and build up a larger position.
