Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6600.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6550 and a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6600.
The Australian dollar moved sideways ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decisions. The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6585 on Tuesday as the US dollar index (DXY) continued retreating.
Fed and RBA decisions
The AUD/USD pair has been in a slow recovery in the past few weeks even as it became evident that the Federal Reserve will take longer to cut interest rates.
Just last week, data by the US statistics agency revealed that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation remained above the 2% target in March. The PCE, which is seen as a better alternative to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 2.6% while the core PCE jumped to 2.8%.
The US economy is also doing relatively well, helped by the resilient consumer. Data released last Thursday showed that the economy expanded by 1.8% in Q1, lower than the expected 2.8%. Still, that growth meant that the US has avoided a hard landing or a recession as most analysts were expecting.
Therefore, there is a probability that the Fed will take longer to start cutting interest rates. In Australia, on the other hand, there is also a likelihood that the bank will hold rates steady for a while.
The bond market expects that the RBA will deliver a rate hike by December since inflation remains stubbornly high. This explains why the Aussie has gained against the US dollar in the past few weeks.
Most analysts anticipates that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in the third or fourth quarter. The bank will provide more guidance about when this cut will happen when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting.
The AUD/USD pair will react to Tuesday’s US consumer confidence report by the Conference Board. Economist see the figure coming in at 104, the lowest swing since November last year.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued rising after bottoming at 0.6323 earlier this month. It has now rallied above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement point. The pair has rallied above the 25-period and 50-period moving averages.
At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has moved above 33, meaning that the pair has a strong momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved sideways slightly below the overbought point of 70.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the key resistance level at 0.6600. The stop-loss of this trade is at 0.6500.
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