Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6600.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6680.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6650 and a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6600.
The AUD/USD pair drifted downwards even after the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. It retreated to the psychologically important level of 0.6640, down from last week’s high of 0.6677.
US PCE and GDP data ahead
The AUD/USD pair dropped slightly after the RBA decided to leave interest rate decision. In it, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.35%. Notably, the statement added that the officials deliberated hiking interest rates in this meeting.
Therefore, analysts believe that the bank will consider hiking rates if inflation remains stubbornly high. Fortunately, the RBA will receive the next quarterly inflation figure before its next interest rate decision.
The AUD/USD’s sell-off was smaller than that of other pairs like the euro and sterling because the Fed has also embraced a hawkish tone. In its last meeting, the bank signaled that it would hold rates higher for longer before starting to cut.
There will be several important economic numbers from the US and Australia this week. In the US, the Conference Board will release the latest consumer confidence report on Tuesday. This is a crucial report because consumers are the biggest part of the American economy.
The other important data to watch will come out on Friday when the statistics agency releases the latest PCE inflation data. Economists expect the report to show that inflation remained above 2.5% in May, higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
The next data to watch from Australia will be the Westpac consumer sentiment report on Tuesday and the monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday. Economists believe that the CPI indicator retreated from 3.6% in April to 3.5% in May.
Finally, Australia will publish the latest housing credit and private sector credit report on Friday.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair pulled back as the US dollar strength continued. It moved to 0.6640, down from last week’s high of 0.6677, and is consolidating at the 50-period moving average. The pair remains inside the support and resistance levels at 0.6580 and 0.6698, where it has failed to cross since May.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is nearing the oversold level of 20 while the Awesome Oscillator has drifted downwards. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Monday as traders wait for the consumer confidence report.
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