- The British pound initially fell off a bit during the early hours on Monday but turned around and show signs of strength to reach above the ¥202 level by the time New York got involved.
- Quite frankly, this is a market that continues to see a lot of upward momentum, and it should considering that the Bank of Japan has absolutely no chance of raising interest rates anytime soon, and the interest rate differential continues to pay you at the end of every session.
Technical Analysis
This is a pair that is obviously very bullish, and therefore I think you need to pay close attention to the idea of any pullback being a potential buying opportunity. The ¥200 level underneath is a major support level based on both psychology and of course the fact that it previously had been massive resistance. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan had intervened in that general vicinity, and the fact that we are above it does suggest that we have much further to go over the longer term. The 50-Day EMA is currently sitting at the 197.60 level and is rising. In other words, there is absolutely nothing on this chart that looks even remotely close to being bearish.
The plan going forward
At this point, anytime this pair drops 100 pips, I’m a buyer. I don’t really need to think about it much further than that, due to the fact that I will get paid at the end of every session, and this is one of the better paying short-yen trades that I have on at the moment. Quite frankly, it’s a bit boring but trading doesn’t necessarily have to be overly exciting, as this is more or less an investment.
The one thing that I do pay close attention to is whether or not the Bank of England looks likely to start aggressively cutting rates. At this point, it doesn’t look like they’re going to do so very aggressively, so there’s really not a whole lot to do here other than to add to the position every time I get a chance to, and to simply hang on and get as much out of this trend as is humanly possible.
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