The NZD/USD is within the lower depths of its near-term range, but still within a rather known price realm and speculators will be tested in the coming days.
- Trading in the NZD/USD pair has been choppy, but has found the lower values of its known range a testing ground the past few days.
- Support levels have been challenged a handful of times over the past week and today’s trading has the NZD/USD near the 0.61190 ratio as of this writing.
- The 0.61100 has served as a target and created a flurry of reversals the past handful of days, and yes the NZD/USD has sunk below this level too, but not in a sustained manner.
U.S data was of interest yesterday but did not cause any earth shattering sentiment shifts; economic data from the U.S continues to be a mixed bag. However, tomorrow’s GDP growth and inflation price index statistics could cause a storm with any surprises. Traders of the NZD/USD also have to take into account that Thursday is a banking holiday in New Zealand as Matariki is celebrated. Meaning that as U.S economic data is released tomorrow, volumes in the NZD/USD could be slightly more vulnerable if volumes are not high.
NZD/USD Thursday and Friday Reactions to Come
Intriguingly while the NZD/USD swims within the lower depths of its known range, the currency pair has shown the ability to reverse when support has been challenged and this sets the stage for a rather interesting test of existing sentiment in the near-term. Speculators who believe the U.S Federal Reserve will eventually have to turn more dovish will have their analysis tested tomorrow when the GDP reports are published. Also on Friday from the U.S the Core PCE Price Index statistics will be presented.
If the U.S economy shows lackluster growth and inflation displays some erosion in the coming two days, this could set the table for USD centric weakness and create some bullish momentum in the NZD/USD. However, if U.S inflation proves stubborn this could cause current technical support levels in the currency pair to become a testing ground for lower moves.
Financial Institutions and Existing Sentiment for the NZD/USD
Financial institutions have actually displayed positive sentiment within the NZD/USD; in order to see this three month charts should be examined. Clearly the 0.61000 level is a key psychological barometer for the NZD/USD. The combination of U.S data tomorrow and a New Zealand banking holiday could cause a test of lower support levels if economic numbers are troubling.
- Yet, the notion that the mid-term higher price range has shown resilience may be a sign that financial institutions also believe more upside will develop in the NZD/USD.
- More positive impetus is needed to create another climb higher, and until that happens resistance levels may prove rather durable.
- If the NZD/USD were to burst above the 0.61370 mark and sustain values this could be a bullish signal for traders.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.61240
Current Support: 0.61110
High Target: 0.61375
Low Target: 0.61020
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