The USD/BRL remains within the higher elements of its price range and speculators have a rather intriguing puzzle to solve as they consider their next Forex wagers.
- The USD/BRL closed yesterday’s trading near the 5.2444 mark, this after touching a low around 5.2159 earlier in the day.
- Support for the USD/BRL had mostly been seen around the 5.2200 level the past handful of days, but yesterday’s selloff definitely took the currency pair lower.
- However, the USD/BRL did reverse higher and its ability to finish at Monday’s closing ratio listed above indicates nervous sentiment exists.
While the broad Forex market has taken on a weaker USD centric position the USD/BRL has not. The currency pair remains within the upper elements of its mid-term and long-term range. Intriguingly the Brazilian economy has shown improvement regarding growth the past quarter and beat expectations. The Central Bank of Brazil did cut interest rates to 10.50% on the 8th of May and its next meeting dates are on the 18th and 19th of June.
USD/BRL and Correlations to Broad Market
The USD has gotten weaker against many major currencies since early May, but this has certainly not been the case with the Brazilian Real. However, financial institutions are likely looking at the current price range of the currency pair as being within the higher elements of its value, this as the U.S Federal Reserve gets set to announce their FOMC decision on the 12th of June which is expected to include dovish rhetoric.
Day traders of the USD/BRL may be looking at the currency pair as being overbought. However, stepping in front of the trend upwards generated by the USD/BRL over the past couple of weeks may feel quite dangerous. The USD/BRL was trading near the 5.0990 ratio on the 20th of May. Yesterdays’ high of nearly 5.2670 hit marks not seen since the middle of April when the currency pair almost went to 5.3000.
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USD/BRL Short-Term Wagers and Considerations
Traders who want to pursue the USD/BRL have a tough decision to make as the currency pair lingers in its higher range. While the USD/BRL may look overbought, it appears financial institutions believe the potential for a more dovish Central Bank of Brazil compared to the Fed which may only issue a less hawkish outlook but not take action is a factor. Yet, traders who believe the USD/BRL is overbought might be tempted to be sellers if technical resistance levels are hit.
- The ability to break below the 5.2200 support level yesterday is interesting and suggests some financial institutions leaned into selling positions perhaps expecting lower ratios to accumulate and start to be demonstrated.
- The reversal upwards back to the middle of the near-term range though showed some nervous buyers remain.
- The U.S will release jobs numbers on Friday and if the data is weaker this could help propel the USD/BRL lower. Until then trading in the currency pair may remain choppy.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.2470
Current Support: 5.2410
High Target: 5.2560
Low Target: 5.2120
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