The USD/INR finished the month of June near the 83.3350 vicinity, essentially touching a price it traded near on the 8th of January, and has seen steady tests of since the 26th of March as its range is tested.
- The USD/INR pair remains rather locked into its known price realms with daily fluctuations allowing day traders to speculate on the currency pair’s value via brokers’ platforms.
- The USD/INR finished June’s trading near the 83.3350 mark, which was a low for the week ending on the 28th, and a rather intriguing support perspective technically displayed since the 5th of June.
- Yes, the USD/ZAR did see a low of nearly 82.9250 on the 3rd of June, but the encounter was only momentary and an incremental run higher ensued after this brief low.
In fact, on the 4th of June the USD/INR was trading at a high of nearly 83.6350. The high for the USD/INR occurred on the 20th of June when the currency pair touched the 83.6680 region. While day traders may view the moves as rather dramatic from a quant perspective based on pure math, the changes in value to the USD/INR remain some of the most non-volatile within Forex. However, speculators who are using leverage in their wagers may not feel this way.
Tight Controls and USD/INR Movements
Day trading on the USD/INR at this point is nearly forbidden for all retail speculators in India, the vast amount of wagering by small traders is done on foreign brokers’ platforms scattered across the globe. The USD/INR support near the 83.3300 vicinity is noteworthy as the month of July begins, but unless a trader has insights to financial transactions of large corporations from inside of India or companies trading with India from the outside world, getting a feel for daily trends remains rather difficult. The Indian government remains firmly in charge of trading for the USD/INR and acts to maintain a tight grip on value.
The moves higher the past handful of weeks which have seen resistance near the 83.5700 marks (with outliers) produce a lot of reversals lower should be considered. However, for day traders to take advantage of price action which appears to be consistently testing known resistance and support levels a solid amount of patience will be needed. Trading as the month of July starts appears to be within a rather attractive speculative support level, but there are no guarantees that a momentary move lower will not occur and that unexplained gaps – when potential Reserve Bank of India transactions are taking place – will not happen.
USD/IND and Weak U.S Correlations to Consider
Correlating the USD/INR to U.S economic data remains rather burdensome. A narrative can certainly be attempted to explain the momentary moves of the currency pair according to the outcome of U.S economic data, but if asked for legitimate proof as a reason for the sudden moves in the USD/INR a person would be hard pressed to present concrete evidence. Economic data from India remains vibrant and its GDP is strong. The technical range of the USD/INR also remains strong.
- The USD/INR price range has been testing its higher range since late March of this year.
- And its current support levels have been higher since late March too.
- But the ability of the currency pair to quickly test lows and then produce reversals back to the current price range being practiced are common enough to provide cautionary road signs for day traders to consider.
USD/INR Outlook for July 2024
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 83.0060 to 83.6250
The USD/INR has certainly been practicing a rather firm range as its higher elements have been tested over the mid-term. June’s trading produced more evidence that the higher values are being accepted by the Reserve Bank of India. Traders may be tempted to buy the USD/INR around current support levels near the 83.3300 to 83.3000 levels and look for reversals higher, but they might need a solid amount of patience, and conservative leverage so incremental moves do not demolish their accounts.
The USD/INR is a tightly controlled currency pair and its trading is largely influenced by forces that day traders have little real insights about regarding market moves. Looking for upside in limited bursts for the time being seems logical in the USD/INR when support is being tested. And when resistance levels are hit that have been on display the past handful of weeks a speculative selling position may be attractive.
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