Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.53.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.90.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.25.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.91.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 33.04.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 32.55.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair traded mixed during the early trading sessions of the week, after hitting its all-time low at the end of last week.
Investors are following economic reports that have revealed the extent to which fears are rising in Turkey about rising food prices, as the country faces inflation rates that are among the highest in the world. This is despite the Turkish president's shift away from unconventional monetary policies for nearly a year.
After winning the presidential election in June 2023, he formed a team of market experts, including Finance Minister Mohamed Simsek, to direct economic reforms and prevent a payment crisis, but the path to recovery remains uncertain for many.
Clearly, this shift has revived interest in foreign investment. The Turkish stock market index rose after the elections, returning more than 40% in dollar terms, and bonds attracted $6.5 billion in foreign investment last month. Also, Dollar-denominated loans converted into Turkish lira have seen transactions of around $20 billion since late March.
Despite this, many Turkish households expect inflation and rising borrowing costs to continue. The report revealed the extent of the threat faced by Erdogan's administration, which over the past two decades has succeeded in lifting millions out of poverty into the middle class. However, the current economic pressures threaten these gains. Inflation rose to 76% on an annual basis in May, and the Central Bank of Turkey expects a significant decline by the end of the year. However, skepticism prevails among the population, especially with food prices rising by more than 50% since early 2022.
USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, The USD/TRY exchange rate mixed near its all-time highs recorded before the close of trading last Friday. Recently, the pair broke through the April high at 32.87 lira. Similarly, the price is supported by trading above the ascending trend line shown in the chart.
Also, the price is moving above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the 4-hour and daily time frames, respectively, indicating that the upward trend has regained control of the overall direction of the pair. If the price rises, the pair is expected to target resistance levels of 32.99 and 33.20. On the other hand, if the price falls below support levels, it will target support levels at 32.50 and 32.20.
Ultimately, Turkish Lira price expectations include a rise in the price with a break of the previous confidence, targeting the mentioned resistance levels.
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