Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6610.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6645 and a take-profit at 0.6580.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6725.
The AUD/USD exchange rate wavered after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. It also reacted mildly to the latest Australian retail sales data. It was trading at 0.6650 on Tuesday, a few pips below Monday’s high of 0.6690.
Hawkish RBA minutes
The AUD/USD pair retreated slightly after Judo Bank published a weak manufacturing PMI report on Monday. Its report showed that the country’s manufacturing sector contracted to 47.2 in June from 49.7 in the previous month. The decline was worse than the median estimate of 47.5. And is a sign that the sector is still struggling.
It also pulled back after the RBA published hawkish minutes on Tuesday morning. In its June meeting, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.35%. The officials also warned that they will not hesitate to hike interest rates if inflation remains steady.
Therefore, analysts believe that the RBA has more room to hike interest rates in the coming months. The odds of a hike will increase after the upcoming quarterly consumer price index (CPI) data. If they come out stronger than expected, they will signal that the RBA will hike in August.
There will be no major economic release from the United States on Tuesday. The only data to watch will be the JOLTs jobs openings report. Economists expect the data to show that the number of job vacancies in May dropped from over 8.059 million in April to 7.86 million in June.
While it is important, its impact on the AUD/USD pair will be limited. ADP will then publish the private payroll data on Wednesday followed by the official figures on Friday.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate remained in a tight range after the RBA minutes. On the 4H chart, the pair is consolidating at the 50-period and 25-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The Average True Range (ATR) has drifted upwards and moved to its highest point since June 17th.
Also, the MACD indicator has remained above the neutral point. Most importantly, the pair has formed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, which is nearing its confluence level. Therefore, it will likely remain in this range on Tuesday. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 0.6500 and 0.6700.
Ready to trade our free Forex signals? Here are the best forex platform Australia to choose from