- It's easy to see that the Dow Jones 30 is very bullish.
- And I do think that eventually we will go higher. However, we are getting a little bit exhausted.
- So, I don't necessarily think it's going to be a shot straight up in the air.
I think a short term pullback is very likely, but ultimately you should pay close attention to the 40,000 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant trigger and an area that I think a lot of people would be interested in. After all, it is an area where there would be a lot of options trading and therefore, I think, a lot of liquidity.
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Cheap Money via the Fed?
Regardless, this is a market that is still begging for cheap money out of the Federal Reserve, and it seems like people are still focusing on that potential. If we can break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then I think the Dow Jones certainly could go ripping much higher. If we were to break down below the 40,000 level, then I think you have a real shot at a move down to the 39,300 level, which is roughly where the 50 day EMA hangs about.
Keep in mind, this is a market that's been in an uptrend for some time. So, I don't necessarily think that you can get short of this market, although I am the first to admit that perhaps we are getting somewhat close to the idea of the stock market topping out, maybe for a short term swing trade. Longer term, I still think this is a market that will go higher based upon the idea of momentum more than anything else. But keep in mind a lot of the sexier stocks are over on the Nasdaq, so we'll see how long the Dow Jones 30 leads the pack. As things stand right now, most of this is going to be about central bank policy.
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