- For two days in a row, the EUR/USD price failed to break above the 1.0750 level and the euro’s gains faltered after policymakers indicated that they needed more evidence that price pressures were under control.
- A preliminary estimate showed that the annual inflation rate in the euro zone fell to 2.5% in June, in line with expectations.
- The core measure, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, was unexpectedly unchanged.
- Inflation rates slowed in Germany, France and Spain, while in Italy it rose to 0.9%.
However, European Central Bank President Lagarde stated at the ECB Forum that the central bank does not yet have sufficient evidence that the inflation threat has passed. Politically, the far-right National Rally won the first round of France’s early parliamentary elections, but with a smaller-than-expected share and far from securing a majority, providing some comfort to investors that centrist parties may retain power.
According to the economic calendar, eurozone inflation fell in June, keeping expectations alive that the ECB will be able to cut interest rates again in September. Headline inflation fell to 2.5% year-on-year in June from 2.6% in May, according to the statistics office Eurostat, in line with market expectations. The core inflation rate fell from 2.9% to 2.8%.
Despite the decline in inflation, some ECB members will feel that it is declining too slowly and that a rate cut in July would be premature. Especially given the strong Labor market in the eurozone. Eurostat also said that unemployment in the eurozone fell to 6.4% in June from 6.5% in May. This will keep upward pressure on wages, which could prevent inflation from falling too quickly. Looking at the main components of the latest inflation release, it reveals that the services sector remains the main driver of price growth at 4.1%, unchanged from May.
Commenting on the figures, Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief economist for the eurozone at Capital Economics, said: "The fact that services inflation, which is most sensitive to domestic economic conditions, has remained elevated this year strengthens the case for caution at the ECB." "June's inflation data will reinforce policymakers' inclination to tread very carefully."
Speaking at the ECB conference in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB has time to gather data to confirm that inflation is on track, but at the same time it must be mindful that taking its time with interest rates at restrictive levels comes at an economic cost.
On the stock market trading platforms front, European stock indexes fell. According to trading, both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 fell on Tuesday, with the former losing 0.6% and the latter 0.4%, as traders absorbed the possibility that the ECB will not cut interest rates again soon. Recently, Lagarde said that the ECB is in no hurry to cut interest rates further as it needs more time to assess inflation and economic trends. Chief economist Philip Lane also said that the June inflation data will not provide answers to the ECB's outstanding questions about core price pressures. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.5% in June from 2.6% as expected, but the core rate remained steady at 2.9%, compared with expectations of 2.8%.
EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:
According to the performance on the daily chart attached, the EUR/USD price is still on its downward path and there will be no exit from the current downward channel without the currency pair moving towards the resistance levels of 1.0830 and 1.0900 respectively. On the other hand, and for the same time frame, the support level of 1.0600 will remain the most important for more strength and control of the bears over the trend. Furthermore, the EUR/USD price may remain in its current range until the markets and investors react to the results of the European elections and then the announcement of the US jobs numbers.
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