- The British pound has rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday but gave back gains above the 1.15 level.
- The 1.15 level is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that we need to pay close attention to.
- The way we have given back the gains doesn't suggest that we are going to end up forming some type of shooting star for the day. It wouldn't be a huge surprise based on market memory.
If we do pull back from here, I think the 50 day EMA is going to be a support level right around the 1.14 level. Keep in mind this pair is actually very volatile under the best of circumstances. So, I do expect big moves anytime I trade in this market.
Interest Rates are Still Key Here.
Keep in mind that the interest rate differential does favor the British pound. Although we have a certain amount of noise coming from the elections in the United Kingdom, the reality is a scenario where short-term pullbacks will be buying opportunities. After all, the market is likely to continue to find plenty of people willing to chase the swap at the end of every day.
With that being said, could open up a move toward the 1.17 level. Short term pullbacks will continue to be very noisy affairs, but I do think over the longer term, we will more likely than not continue to see the Swiss franc punished due to the fact that it is such a low yielding currency. And it's worth noting that the CPI numbers during the early hours on Thursday came out at 0.0%, which is lower than anticipated. So that shows that the Swiss National Bank may have to continue easing its monetary policy. Granted, it's only one data point, but it is something that people will be paying attention to. Therefore, I remain a buyer of dips.
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