- At the start of trading this week, gold prices jumped towards the $2,338 resistance level before stabilizing around $2,332 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis.
- Clearly, the price stabilization comes as investors continue to assess the latest US inflation data.
- Last Friday, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of core inflation slowed to its lowest annual rate since 2021, raising hopes that price growth is in line with the target pace and supporting expectations of two US rate cuts this year by the central bank.
Also, expectations of lower interest rates elsewhere supported bullion prices, with cuts expected by the Bank of England after the UK elections, and additional interest rate cuts expected by the People's Bank of China to support economic stimulus efforts. Investors' attention will now focus on the US jobs report and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due to be released this week for clarification on the timing of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
Elsewhere, India, the second-largest consumer of gold, saw lackluster physical demand for gold last week amid rising prices.
According to factors affecting the gold market, the US dollar index DXY fell towards 105.6 on Monday, declining for the third straight session, mainly influenced by the strength of the euro after the first round of early elections in France over the weekend. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won the first round of parliamentary elections as widely expected, although the far-right party took a smaller than expected lead.
According to reliable trading platforms, the US dollar came under pressure on Friday after US personal consumption expenditures inflation slowed in May, boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will continue with its interest rate cuts this year. Now, markets see a roughly 63% chance of a US rate cut in September, while the odds of a move in November and December have also increased.
Concurrently, investors are looking ahead to US manufacturing activity data for more insight into the economy and potential implications for monetary policy. Overall, the US dollar was the weakest against the euro, the pound and the major currencies.
In another aspect affecting the gold market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to more than 4.45% at the start of the second quarter, its highest level in three weeks, as markets continued to assess the potential financial risks in the US economy and the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Stronger expectations for the presidency of Donald Trump following last week’s debate, and the resulting expansionary fiscal policy expectations support the inflationary scenario and pressured Treasury and long-term bond yields, which led to the flattening of the current inversion of the curve.
Meanwhile, data from the ISM index showed that the US manufacturing sector contracted more than expected in June, while prices slowed. Furthermore, nearly 65% of the market has prepared for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting, and more than 60% of the market expects two or more rate cuts by the central bank this year.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart attached, the price of gold is stable in narrow ranges, and it seems that prices are awaiting more stimulus to move in one of the two directions. Technically, the opportunity will be stronger for bulls if the price of gold stabilizes above the resistance levels of $2355 and $2370 per ounce, respectively. On the other hand, and for the same period of time, the support of $2300 per ounce will remain the most important for the strength of bears' control over the trend. Ultimately, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.
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