- The US dollar has rallied slightly during the early hours on Friday against the Russian ruble but continues to see a lot of noise overall.
- It’s probably worth noting that this is a market that cannot seem to get any real momentum, but it is worth noting that over the last several months, we have seen the Russian ruble strengthen in general, and the fact that the greenback is relatively strong against most currencies but has struggled against this one is something that’s worth paying attention to.
Crude oil continues to show signs of strength, and despite the fact that people are at least willing to pretend like the Russians are not selling crude oil, it certainly has an influence on the Russian ruble itself. It’s ironic that the market will continue to see a lot of trouble for clarity, but that’s not a huge surprise considering that it’s an emerging market currency anyway. After all, there are lot of questions asked about the overall risk appetite for the global economy. The Russian ruble of course has the stigma of plenty of sanctions, but it seems like most people are willing to ignore that when it comes to making money.
Does the Downtrend Continue?
At this point, I think you need to pay close attention to the moving averages, because it could give you an idea as to whether or not the downtrend will continue. For example, the 50-Day EMA is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, as it previously has been very important as dynamic support and resistance. With this being the case, the market rally and at this point in time would more likely than not see a significant amount of selling.
If we break down below the 80 rubles level, then we will see quite significantly to the downside, as it would be a major breakdown of support. At that point in time, we would probably see the US dollar fall quite significantly against not only the Russian ruble, but almost everything else. As things stand right now, I think the Russian ruble had been so oversold that we need to recalibrate.
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