- Bitcoin has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday in the early hours, and it’s easy to see that this asset is essentially trying to sort itself out.
- We don’t have any real directionality over the last couple of days, and that does make a certain amount of sense, considering that Bitcoin doesn’t operate in any type of vacuum.
The idea that the overall global market affects Bitcoin drastically makes quite a bit of sense considering that we now have an ETF that’s sold on Wall Street. In other words, Bitcoin has become a bit of an index fund more than anything else. This will be directly correlated to the idea of whether or not people are willing to take risks, or if they are not. If they are willing to take risks, then it makes a certain amount of sense that Bitcoin would continue to go higher. On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the 200-Day EMA and we see risk appetite across the board get eviscerated, then it’s very possible that we could see Bitcoin test the lows near the $50,000 level again.
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Ultimately, Bitcoin will find its true value. I suspect that the true value is much lower, but that’s not something that I anticipate seeing in the next few years. After all, sooner or later somebody is going to have to find a use for Bitcoin, besides the “Greater Fool Theory”, which says you are simply buying something because somebody else will come along and pay more for it later. I get it, it is the same reason everybody trades everything else, but Bitcoin seems to have a bit of a cult following, despite the fact that none of these people can tell you what it’s actually going to be used for. I think sooner or later, the reality comes to the markets, but it will only be after Wall Street has everybody’s money involved in the market.
I live in a metro area that has 4 million people in the United States. I know of no place that will accept Bitcoin as payment, and the reality is that sooner or later everybody else recognizes this. However, in the meantime there is a lot of interest in this digital asset, so as long as you don’t think it is your retirement plan, you can continue to trade it as it tends to run on hyper cycles. At this point, we are trying to determine where we are in that cycle. Because of this, I think we continue to go sideways overall.
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