- The natural gas markets were somewhat choppy in the early hours on Thursday, as we approach a significant short-term resistance barrier.
- In my daily analysis of natural gas, it’s obvious that this is a market that still has a lot of overhead resistance, and therefore I think we have got a situation where if we do break out to the upside, we could get a massive, short squeeze.
- That would of course be good for the market and could send the market looking to the $2.30 level above, where we also have the 50-Day EMA.
Ultimately, this is a market that has a season that tends to outperform others, and we are not in that season. However, if we get the occasional heat wave in the United States, you can see natural gas markets rise as a result. That being said, those moves tend to be rather short-lived, so it is something that you have to be very cognizant of, and of course be very nimble when it comes to getting in and out of the market.
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Seasonal Trade
However, as for myself I tend to trade this as a seasonal trade. During the dead of summer, I have no hesitation whatsoever in jumping into the ETF market, because I can take advantage of a position without putting a bunch of leverage in the market. If you are a CFD trader, you can accomplish the same thing by just dialing down the leverage via your position size. The reason I do this is that sooner or later we start to focus on the autumn, and the rise in heating demand in the United States.
I know a lot of international readers visit our website, so I should point out the fact that the natural gas markets are based on the Henry Hub contract in Louisiana. In other words, it’s almost entirely a domestic US-based contract. What you are looking for is heating demand to pick up in the northeastern part of the United States, or perhaps a heat wave to drive prices higher in the interim. Because of this, I put a position on and build it up during the course of summer, selling this market as it rips higher later this year.
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