USD/NOK Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Stabilize Against Norwegian Krone

• The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Norwegian krone on Friday, only to turn around and show signs of weakness.
• We are currently hanging around the 200-Day EMA, which of course is a technical indicator that is quite often looked at as a trend defining, and then on top of that, we are hanging around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
• All things being equal, the 10.70 NOK level is an area that I think a lot of people will continue to pay close attention to as it had previously been resistance.
• By doing so, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of the “buy on the dips” rhetoric, and of course behavior.

Crude Oil

It’ll be interesting to see how crude oil affects this pair, because the Norwegian krone is quite often attached to crude. That being said, the reality is likely to be a very noisy reality, due to the fact that the crude oil situation is all over the place right now due to the geopolitical concerns, the worries that the global economy is going to slow down, and then of course the fact that the other side of this currency pair, the US dollar, also represents a significant oil-producing economy.

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The other thing to pay attention to is going to be the risk appetite of traders around the world. Remember that the US dollar is of course a very “safety first” type of currency that a lot of people pay attention to, so I think you’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at geopolitical risk and of course the way that risk appetite is showing itself in various markets in order to put money to work, not only in this pair, but in every pair.

At this point, it looks like the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates in September, and it looks like people are willing to bet on a US dollar falling. However, it’s also worth noting that there is a lot of support just underneath, and it looks like we are continuing to defend the 200-Day EMA. In other words, the downside might be somewhat limited.

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