ASX 200 Forecast: Pulls Back into Support

• The ASX 200 has shown itself to be somewhat negative, but I am paying close attention to the AU$8000 level, as it is an area that’s been supported multiple times, and although we did fall rather rapidly in the early hours, we have turned around to show signs of life.
• Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked about it, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that the Australian Stock Exchange is considered to be one of the minor players around the world.

Commodities and Financials

At this point in time, you should keep in mind that the ASX 200 is full of 2 major sectors, the commodity sector and the financial sector. Some of the bigger players in Australia include Australia and New Zealand Group, a major financial conglomerate that has a lot to do with financing construction around the Asia-Pacific region. Even more importantly sometimes, we have the commodities sector being represented by such global conglomerates such as Rio Tinto, Macquarie, and others. Because of this, it is a market that is highly sensitive to the Asian economy, because quite frankly it’s a scenario where the market will be paying close attention to the idea of global growth or perhaps global slowdown, and with that being the case, I think you need to be very cautious.

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At this point in time, if we do pull back from here, the 50-Day EMA is closer to the AU$7900 level, and it is rising. Suggesting that there is quite a bit of support underneath that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. If we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then the market is likely to go looking to the AU$7750 level. With this being said, the market is likely to continue to be a “buy on the dips” scenario, but there is the possibility that we take off to the upside. If we can break above the AU$8200 level, then the market really starts to pick up momentum, opening up the possibility of a bigger move.

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