- Since the beginning of this week, the gold price has been on an upward rebound, with gains reaching the resistance level of $2,528 per ounce, starting from the support level of $2,485 per ounce in the same week.
- It had been subject to selling yesterday following the strength of the US dollar after the US inflation figures, and the gold price retreated to $2,501 per ounce before stabilizing around $2,515 per ounce at the beginning of trading on Thursday.
As for the factors affecting the Forex market, the US dollar index rose to 101.8 on Wednesday, approaching its highest level in three weeks, after recent inflation data limited the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates aggressively despite signs of a slowdown in the Labor market. The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in August, up from 0.2% in July and above expectations of 0.2%, indicating continued inflationary pressures.
Overall, financial markets now see a 67% chance of a 25-basis point cut at next week’s Fed meeting, with a 33% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. As is well known, a less restrictive monetary policy benefits gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets. Also, traders closely watched the first debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in anticipation of the November elections.
On another note, US Treasury yields rose. According to trading, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note returned to the 3.67% level on Wednesday after falling to 3.62%. Clearly, that happened after the core consumer price index came in higher than expected, pushing bets on a 25-basis point rate cut by the Fed next week.
According to the results of the economic calendar, the US core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in August, beating expectations of 0.2% and up from 0.2% in July. Meanwhile, the year-over-year gain remained at 3.2%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. Economists consider the core index a better gauge of underlying inflation than the overall CPI.
On the stock trading front, the Nasdaq 100 rose more than 1.5%, led by Nvidia shares. According to trading, US stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday, supported by technology stocks as investors assessed the latest inflation data and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. According to trading, the S&P 500 rose 1%, extending its winning streak to three sessions, while the technology-dominated Nasdaq rose 2.2%, led by strong performances from chipmakers such as Nvidia (+8%) and Broadcom (+6.7%). The Dow Jones also added 124 points.
US inflation data showed that headline prices fell to a three-year low, but core inflation rose 0.3%, higher than expected. This has fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve will opt to cut US interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting next week, with traders reducing the probability of a 50-basis point rate cut to just 13%.
On the political front, the presidential debate raised the chances of Kamala Harris winning the US election, boosting solar energy stocks and pushing crypto-related stocks lower, including First Solar (+15.2%) and Coinbase (-1%).
Top Forex Brokers
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
There is no change in our technical view of the performance of the gold index. According to the expectations of gold analysts today, the general trend of prices is still upward. Technically, the psychological resistance of $2,500 per ounce will remain a support for the bulls' strong control over the trend. Thus, prepare for new record upward breaches, especially if global geopolitical tensions increase and global central banks continue to abandon tightening their monetary policy. Currently, the closest resistance levels to the trend are $2,525, $2,540, and $2,565 per ounce, which are sufficient to push all technical indicators towards strong overbought levels.
Ready to trade our Gold price forecast? We’ve made a list of the best Gold trading platforms worth trading with.