- Gold traded around $2,660 an ounce on Monday, on track for its biggest quarterly gain since early 2016, driven by repeated record highs in recent sessions as confidence grows that the Federal Reserve will deliver more U.S. interest rate cuts.
- Last week, both the PCE price index and the core PCE price index rose slightly by 0.1%, with the core index rising less than expected by 0.2%.
Meanwhile, U.S. personal spending slowed, and income growth slowed unexpectedly. Overall, Fed Funds futures indicate that financial markets are betting on about a 54% chance of another 50-basis point cut in November. The prospect of further U.S. rate cuts by the Fed, combined with dovish expectations from global central banks, boosts the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion.
Additionally, China's additional monetary stimulus and the growing risks of a wider conflict in the Middle East are enhancing this attractiveness.
According to stock trading platforms, US stocks ended another record week on a weak note on Friday, as Wall Street grew hopeful that the US economy could manage the rare feat of taming high inflation without causing a recession. Furthermore, the S&P 500 index fell 0.1% from its all-time high the previous day, its 42nd such level this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 137 points, or 0.3%, to set a record of its own, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.
In other news, Treasury yields in the U.S. bond market fell after a report showed inflation slowed slightly more than economists had expected in August. It echoed similar figures from earlier in the month on inflation, but Friday’s report resonated because it is the measure that Federal Reserve officials prefer to use. For more than a year, the Federal Reserve has kept key U.S. interest rates at their highest level in two decades in hopes of slowing the economy enough to push inflation toward its 2% target. Now that inflation has fallen sharply from its peak two summers ago, the Fed has begun cutting U.S. interest rates to ease conditions in the sluggish labor market and prevent a recession.
Of course, the risk of a slowdown remains. U.S. employers have slowed hiring, and Friday’s inflation report also showed that U.S. consumer spending growth in August was less than economists had expected. Obviously, that’s important because consumer spending is a key driver of the economy. Part of the shortfall may be because Americans’ incomes grew less than economists had expected in August. With the Fed cutting rates, Americans will be making lower interest payments on savings accounts and other similar assets.
At the same time, the boost that lower interest rates can provide to borrowers may take longer to pay off, “so consumer spending is likely to be squeezed.”
Overall, the S&P 500 fell 7.20 points to 5,738.17, but still closed out its third straight week of gains and sixth in the last seven. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 137.89 to 42,313.00, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 70.70 to 18,119.59.
Also, Overseas markets recorded larger moves, with Shanghai stocks rising 2.9% to close their best week since 2008. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong jumped 3.6% to end its best week since 1998. Stocks rose after a series of announcements throughout the week from the People's Bank of China and the government in hopes of supporting the world's second-largest economy. Investors are not convinced that all the stimuli will ultimately succeed, but they say they are impressed by its sheer size after previous partial efforts.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.75% from 3.80% late Thursday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury notes, which moves more closely with expectations of what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates, fell to 3.56% from 3.63%. generally, traders are betting on a 55% chance that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by another half a percentage point at its next meeting in November, according to CME Group data. Ultimately, the bank typically moves rates by only a quarter of a percentage point.
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Gold Price Analysis and forecast Today:
According to today's gold analysts' forecasts, gold spot prices may remain on an upward trajectory pending the market and investor reactions to the announcement of US jobs numbers and statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The historical peak of $2,700 per ounce is within reach of bulls, and in turn, it will move technical indicators towards oversold levels. As long as global geopolitical tensions are on the rise and the US dollar is losing ground, the price of gold may remain on its upward trajectory.
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