- At the beginning of this week, the price of gold fell below $2500 per ounce, with losses extending to the support level of $2490 per ounce, continuing its decline from its all-time highs last week due to pressures from the strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields.
- According to economic data, US core personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.2% in July, in line with expectations, while annual rates remained unchanged, contrary to expectations of an increase.
- Meanwhile, these eased expectations of a 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and was consistent with the overall resilience of the economy in the face of high interest rates, following the upward revision of GDP last week.
However, financial markets still expect a 100-basis point cut in US interest rates over the remaining three meetings of the Federal Reserve this year. Also, the European Central Bank is expected to implement interest rate cuts, given the sharp slowdown in the inflation rate based on preliminary August figures.
Regarding factors affecting the gold market, the US dollar is maintaining its gains in anticipation of key jobs data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) settled at 101.7 on Monday after rising for three consecutive sessions, as investors eased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in light of the latest inflation reading, while looking ahead to the key US jobs report later this week. Prior to that, data released on Friday showed that US core personal consumption expenditures grew at a steady pace in July, reducing hopes that the central bank would be able to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
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The focus now turns to the upcoming US jobs report in August as the Fed shifts its attention from inflation to the Labor market. A group of Fed policymakers recently warned of signs of weakness in the Labor market, while indicating confidence that inflation will return to target.
According to reliable trading platforms, the US dollar has broadly held onto its gains and traded at a two-week high against the euro.
On the supply and demand front for gold around the world:
The Central Bank of Argentina has sent part of its gold reserves abroad in recent weeks to issue financial certificates for use in financial purposes, a move that could give the country some much-needed flexibility, according to people directly familiar with the matter. Once the certificates are issued, the gold can eventually be used as collateral to obtain financing, according to one person, who asked not to be identified to discuss private information. Before this move, about half of Argentina's gold was in domestic vaults and the other half in London, according to another person.
For its part, officials from the central bank, known by its Spanish acronym BCRA, declined to comment on the matter.
The monetary authority separately confirmed on Monday that it had sent gold between its accounts, citing accounts inside the country and others abroad. However, the bank did not say how much gold was shipped, which is close to $5 billion, for what reason or to where. Also, bank officials criticized what they called "irresponsible reports" about gold going abroad, stressing that reserve management has always been secret.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
According to today's gold analysts' expectations, the recent sales did not derail the gold price from its general trend, which is still rising, and adherence to the psychological resistance of $2,500 per ounce confirms the strength and control of bulls over the trend. At the same time moving technical indicators towards strong saturation levels of buying. If the US dollar returns to decline, bulls may find the opportunity to move the gold price towards the resistance levels of $2,525, $2,540 and $2,565 per ounce, respectively. In contrast, according to the performance on the daily chart, there will be no initial break of the general upward trend without moving towards the support levels of $2,470 and $2,438 per ounce, respectively. The gold price will remain on its upward path until the reaction to the announcement of US jobs numbers at the end of the week, while monitoring the path of global geopolitical tensions.
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