Higher realms of the USD/MXN are again being tested as bullishness pervades the currency pair and it does not correlate to the broad Forex market.
- Technical traders holding onto the belief the USD/MXN exchange rate is overbought are learning a hard lesson about behavioral sentiment.
- Financial institutions clearly continue to buy the USD/MXN and make resistance levels appear vulnerable.
- Tomorrow Claudia Sheinbaum will become the official President of Mexico and it is apparent large commercial enterprises remain anxious about what her leadership will bring as she also is given a strong Morena political party that is populous.
Traders looking for sudden selloffs in the USD/MXN have not been given any evidence this is going to happen in the near-term. Even as USD centric weakness across the broad Forex landscape has seen other major currencies get stronger, the USD/MXN continues to trend in a bullish – negative – manner. As of this writing the USD/MXN is near 19.70200 with quick trading changes being seen.
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U.S Economic Data and President Claudia Sheinbaum
While U.S economic data continues to underscore why the U.S Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.50% nearly two weeks ago, the USD/MXN has not turned bearish in any sustained manner. Last week’s GDP numbers met their expectations and Friday’s inflation report did show some erosion, and while the USD got weaker against many currencies, the USD/MXN climbed and actually showed upwards velocity on Friday. The USD/MXN was near the 19.53000 mark when a sudden round of buying surged.
A high of nearly 19.75450 was tested before going into the weekend, this before a slight selloff occurred. However, the sustained highs in the USD/MXN early this morning highlight that a strong bearish reversal is unlikely to be maintained in the short-term. Tomorrow’s speech from President Claudia Sheinbaum will get attention from financial institutions regarding her approach to fiscal responsibility. If she does not address economic issues that financial institutions want to hear, and simply says she is going to provide more social welfare this might have a bullish effect on the USD/MXN.
U.S Jobs Numbers this Friday and the USD/MXN
Jobs numbers this coming Friday from the U.S loom in the near distance and this will may create choppy conditions too moving forward. While it might be smart to think a weak U.S employment report will help bearish perspectives in the USD/MXN the notion that previous data the past couple of weeks has not helped ignite sustained selling should be considered.
- Traders remain focused on the Mexican government and until financial institutions are made to calmer, nervous trading in the USD/MXN may continue to be seen.
- The 20.00000 level is perched above too closely for comfort.
- Trading in the USD/MXN tomorrow will get volatile and the remainder of the week is going to prove noteworthy.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.72300
Current Support: 19.67400
High Target: 19.78900
Low Target: 19.59100
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