- The US dollar has fallen on Thursday against the Mexican peso, just as we had seen negative pressure during the trading session on Wednesday.
- This is a market that had recently tried to break above the 20 MXN level but has since seen a bit of profit-taking.
- That makes a certain amount of sense, the reality is of course that large, round, psychologically significant figures continue to be a major barrier for the market to go higher.
- If we were to break above the 20 MXN level, then it would obviously be very bullish for the US dollar, and it would of course also attract a lot of attention due to headlines.
On the other hand, the market has plenty of support underneath, especially near the 19 MXN level, where we have the 50-Day EMA coming into the picture, which obviously is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to. All things being equal, the market pull back to that area does make a certain amount of sense, but I think buyers will jump in to try to pick up the US dollar as we have a lot of concerns when it comes to the global economy, and of course the US economy.
US/Mexican Economy is Interlinked
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The US and Mexican economies are interlinked rather strongly, so therefore it makes a lot of sense that this pair continues to be very active. After all, the United States is the biggest buyer of Mexican goods, and furthermore the remittances sent back to Mexico from the United States has a certain amount of influence as well.
Ironically, you should keep in mind that if the US economy starts to falter, that has a detrimental effect on the Mexican peso as it’s essentially the same thing as a store or supplier that has its biggest customer running into financial issues. Furthermore, Mexican nationals tend to return home when the economic situation slows down in America.
It's worth noting that the last 2 days have been negative for the US dollar in this pair, while the CPI and PPI numbers have been hotter than expected. Because of this, we have seen people think that perhaps the US economy is stronger than anticipated, and if that’s going to be the case, that favors Mexico in this inverted relationship.
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