- The US dollar has spent quite a bit of time during the month of September going back and forth, as we have bounced around between the 19 MXN level and the 20 MXN level.
- That being said, this is also a market that has been very noisy in general, and it does make a certain amount of sense considering that the economy in the United States continues to be noisy.
- Therefore, it makes a certain amount of sense that we have to pay close attention to how things are playing out in America in order to make sense of this pair.
The inverse correlation
Keep in mind that the better that the US economy does, the better the Mexican peso does against the US dollar. After all, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, due to the fact that there are a lot of questions as to whether or not the US economy is going to continue to grow, or if we are going to see a recession. If we do, this has a very negative turn on the Mexican peso just waiting to happen, due to the fact that Mexico is the biggest exporter into the United States. In other words, if the US economy slows down, it means that there will be less money flowing into Mexico for those goods that are typically sent into America.
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Another thing that isn’t talked about as much, but there is a huge amount of remittances sent from the United States into Mexico by Mexican nationals who will work in the United States for a temporary amount of time. If there are less jobs in America, there will be less dollars flowing over the border and into Mexico.
Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has cut rates quite drastically, dropping 50 basis points in one go, the reality is that people are more interested in going into the Treasury market than to invest in Mexico. If we continue to see more week economic activity, I suspect that the USD/MXN currency pair will break above the 20 MXN level, opening up the door to the 20.53 level. On pullbacks, I suspect that there will continue to be a significant amount of support near the 19 MXN level.
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