- The MIB 40 has pulled back rather significantly.
- At this point, it looks like the Italian Bourse is going to continue to struggle to break above the €35,000 level, an area that has offered a bit of a ceiling in the market over the last several months.
- This of course is an area that I will be paying close attention to going forward, and I do think that we have to look at this through the prism of a market that is trying to build up a certain amount of pressure.
The fact that we pulled back during the trading session on Monday should not be a huge surprise as we have seen quite a bit of trouble recently. Pulling back the way we have suggest that we could drop toward the gap from the Wednesday session, which has yet to be filled. After that, we also have the 50 Day EMA sitting right around the €33,600 level and it is trying to rally at this point. If we were to break down below there, then the market could very well drop down to the €33,000 level.
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All things being equal, this is a trend that I think continues, and therefore if we bounce from here, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we break out to the upside. On that move, we could see a much bigger move, and based upon the so-called “measured move”, one would anticipate a €2500 level move on the breakout, perhaps sending this market toward the €37,500 level.
Risk Appetite
The risk appetite around the world will have a major influence on which indices see more inflow, including Italy. While Italy is not necessarily an exotic Third World type of index, it’s not necessarily the first place people put money to work. This is especially true when they think of Europe, because when they think of Europe, they generally are talking about Germany. However, the DAX starts to take off to the upside, then the MIB will catch up sooner or later.
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