The USD/MXN has traded lower the past handful of days and has sustained lower near-term elements as today has started. However, traders need to be careful regarding the potential of reversals developing.
- The USD/MXN exchange rate is near the 19.22900 ratio as of this writing having been able to sustain lower momentum which was created last week.
- The currency pair touched a high of nearly 19.83000 last Tuesday in the wake of Claudia Sheinbaum taking over the Presidency of Mexico.
- Financial institutions clearly remain nervous regarding the potential policies of Sheinbaum, but a curious set of results has been seen in the USD/MXN the past four trading days.
While the broad Forex market has seen the USD get stronger against most major currencies the past handful of days, the Mexican Peso has turned in a better performance. The ability to create a bearish streak lower must be given attention by speculators. Yes, the USD/MXN remains with the upper realms of its long-term trading, but the past few days raise questions regarding timeframes and perspectives.
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Fiscal Concerns in Mexico and U.S Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy
The past handful of months have demonstrated a non-correlation via the Mexican Peso to the broad Forex market. While the USD had gotten weaker against most major currencies, the MXN lost value. This was certainly caused by nervousness in financial institutions regarding potential fiscal policies via Claudia Sheinbaum and her stronger than ever Morena political party. However, the ability to come down from highs seen early last week, and even trade lower this past Friday after a stronger than expected jobs report from the U.S shows the USD/MXN is still operating within its own trading reality technically.
Short-term perspectives for the USD/MXN if correlated to the broad Forex market should have created more upwards momentum for the currency pair. However, resistance levels held firm around the 19.83000 vicinity and lower price action started to produce sustained lows, including this morning.
Financial Institutions and Consideration of an Overbought USD/MXN
Traders need to be careful within the USD/MXN. The lower price values now being displayed did produce a bullish reaction in the middle of September. Day traders need to understand financial institutions remain nervous regarding the outlook for Mexico fiscally, particularly because the new President has promised social welfare programs which will be costly.
- However, there is a notion the USD/MXN may be viewed as still being in overbought territory.
- Because of the risk adverse dynamics being seen in the global marketplace currently, day traders of the USD/MXN should practice strict risk management.
- The downward momentum in the USD/MXN generated the past few days is interesting, but a reversal upwards would not be surprising in the near-term.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.26900
Current Support: 19.21700
High Target: 19.34200
Low Target: 19.15600
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