Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.99.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The dollar-lira pair maintained its stability in the overall trading of this week. The pair traded around 34.20 liras per dollar, amidst the Turkish currency's orbital movement by the country's financial and monetary authorities. The Turkish government's support for maintaining the stability of the lira comes within the efforts to curb inflation. This is among other measures, the most important of which is maintaining the interest rate high for a long period, as the interest rate was fixed last September at 50% for the sixth consecutive meeting, amid expectations that interest rates will remain high until the end of this year and the beginning of 2025. The lira may receive support from rising interest rates in contrast to the shift in US monetary policy, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last September for the first time in about 4 years. Also, expectations indicate that more cuts will be approved over the coming months.
This divergence in monetary policy is expected to boost the value of the lira against the dollar, attracting more foreign inflows seeking to benefit from the high interest rate.
In other news, investors followed new amendments by the Turkish government that aim to attract foreign Labor competencies, as the Turkish government seeks to develop its competitiveness. The Turkish Ministry of Labor and Social Security announced a series of amendments that include reforming the criteria for work permits for foreigners, including easing employment and financial efficiency requirements, as the requirement for large companies to hire 5 Turkish citizens for every foreign worker was cancelled as well as reducing wages for some jobs. Also, the amendments included exceptions for technology specialists, and facilities for establishing companies. These amendments came after meetings with the Ministers of Interior and Labor, with the aim of facilitating procedures and enhancing Labor market stability.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical level, the dollar pair against the lira (USD/TRY) stabilized within the same limits in which it has been trading since the beginning of the week. The pair recorded levels of 34.20 liras at the time of writing the report, which is the same average around which it has been moving throughout the current month. Technically, the price traded up and down within an ascending price channel on the four-hour time frame. Also, the pair is trading above the 50-day moving average on the four-hour time frame, which represents strong support levels. The general upward trend continued to dominate with the price moving above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The Turkish Lira price forecast includes a rise in the pair with the price stabilizing within the price channel, as every decline in the dollar price represents an opportunity to buy back.
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