My previous signal on 5th November gave a profitable long trade entry from the retest of the support level at $0,6615.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
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Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6512 or $0.6558.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6435, $0.6345, or $0.6299.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast ten days ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to see a pivotal point at $0.6615, but then could go anywhere due to volatility in the US Dollar as the results from the US general election later in the day came in. I did think that a Trump victory would strengthen the Dollar, and these were good and accurate calls.
The story in the Forex market is very simple right now – the US Dollar is advancing everywhere and has been doing so for several days, even against risk-on currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Although the Trump/Republican victory in the USA boosted the US stock market, it has not helped global stock markets and that is a reason why the Aussie is weak.
The price has been pushed down by a symmetrical bearish price channel (see the linear regression analysis study within the price chart graphic below), and the outlook continues to be bearish.
I cannot see a long trade being a good idea now, so I would look to go short here, but the problem is that the price is not close to the nearest key resistance level at $0.6512. Yet if that level is reached and rejected, it would likely be an excellent opportunity to enter a short trade.
If you are holding a short trade, it will probably be wise to keep it for the time being, unless the price makes a strong bottom.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of PPI and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed later in the night by results from the US general election. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the AUD.
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