Bullish View
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 100,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 80,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days,
Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 80,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 100,000.
Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency in the industry, surged to a record high of near $94,000 as the Donald Trump trade gained steam. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 91,000 on Thursday morning, meaning that it has more than doubled this year. It has also jumped by over 480% from its lowest level in 2023.
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Bitcoin’s surge coincided with the ongoing ETF inflows as institutional investors continued piling up. The iShares Bitcoin ETF has had cumulative inflows of $28.9 billion and has $41.85 billion in assets. Fidelity’s FBTC ETF has over $17.26 billion in assets, while all spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $94 billion in assets.
The rally coincided with the excitement about Donald Trump’s win last week. Unlike Kamala Harris, Trump expressed his support for the crypto industry in several speeches, including at a big Bitcoin conference. He plans to enact friendly regulations that will make the US the crypto capital of the world.
Bitcoin ignored the relatively higher inflation data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline inflation jumped from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October, while the core CPI remained at 3.3%. These numbers mean that the Fed will maintain a relatively hawkish tone in the coming meeting.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The weekly chart explains why the price of Bitcoin has gone parabolic this week. The BTC/USD currency pair formed a cup and handle pattern between November 2021 and this month. In technical analysis, this is one of the most bullish patterns in the market.
Bitcoin also formed a falling broadening wedge pattern, which often leads to more gains. It has now remained above the 50-week and 200-week moving averages. Most importantly, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator has pointed upwards, reaching a high of 2.7. That is a sign that it has more upside going forward.
Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the BTC/USD pair is upwards, with the path towards 100,000 becoming clearer. However, a drop below the support at 70,000 will invalidate the bullish view.
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