- The Canadian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the early hours on Monday as we continue to test the crucial 109 yen level.
- That's an area that's been important a couple of times in the past, so it's not a huge surprise to see that we're hanging out in this area.
- So, the question now is, what happens next? Well, this week is going to be very, very noisy.
That being said, none of it, at least until Friday when we get, you know, some employment numbers coming out of Canada really have anything to do with Canada. So, this might be a good place to hang out and hide as we wait for some kind of clarity for traders to act upon.
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A Bit of Technical Analysis
The 50-day EMA sits just below the 109 yen level and the 200-day EMA sits just above current pricing. So, we are sandwiched between these two indicators, but I think given enough time we probably bounce a bit and then go looking to the 110.50 yen level. CAD/JPY is a market that I think sees a lot of influence from oil as well, mainly due to the fact that Japan imports 100% of its crude oil while Canada is a major exporter. The interest rate differential does favor the Canadian dollar although this isn't as big of a play as something like the British pound or the US dollar.
Nonetheless, this is a market that is going to follow right along with the other yen related pairs. And I do think that the carry trade will continue to be a big mover in this market. If we can break out above the 110.75 yen level, then we could see a move towards the 112.50 yen level. On a breakdown below the 50 day EMA, then we have to reset and rethink about where we are going to go going forward.
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