WTI Crude Oil finished below the 70.000 USD per barrel price as the weekend approached, setting up a challenging week ahead for traders as fundamentals and behavioral sentiment are certain to collide.
- WTI Crude Oil closed around 69.605 going into the weekend.
- The week’s high for the commodity was seen on early Friday when the price approached 71.750 before running into downside pressures.
- However, WTI Crude Oil did finish comfortably above its low for the week which was seen on Tuesday when the resource sunk to the 67.100 vicinity.
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Day traders may have been surprised by the ability of WTI Crude Oil to sink lower this past week after tensions in the Middle East were loud the previous weekend, but experienced large players showed they remain fixated on supply and demand outlook. While both components of these fundamental forces in WTI Crude Oil will remain important this week, the coming U.S election could cause some unknown to stir sentiment. The Middle East conflict is still being fought, but for the moment it remains relatively calm.
Trading Sentiment and Predicting the U.S President
It is likely a victory by Donald Trump would be seen as a negative for price in WTI Crude Oil. This is because Trump must be viewed as someone who believes the U.S should allow for more domestic oil production. The coming vote on Tuesday of this week may cause some choppy conditions early this week and then deliver a price reaction when the winner of the White House race is known.
Some technical traders may not want to believe there will be a large impact in WTI Crude Oil simply based on the U.S election outcome, but behavioral sentiment will be at work in the coming days. If WTI Crude Oil remains under 70.000 USD per barrel going into Tuesday it may be a bearish signal that lower prices could develop. Having said the above it can be argued that the price of WTI Crude Oil has periodically been under 70.000 while Joe Biden has been President, so the effect beyond the near-term will may only be a barometer of nervousness and not real fundamentals.
Last Week’s Surge Higher on Friday
The ability of WTI Crude Oil to climb from a low on Tuesday which approached the 67.000 level and to come within sight of nearly 72.000 by Friday following a steady incremental climb shows that price velocity in the commodity remains a danger.
On Thursday of last week WTI Crude Oil jumped from the 69.600 area to 70.800 rather quickly.
The sudden jump in price may have been sparked by an increase in nervousness, but Friday’s reversal lower and close to within sight of Thursday’s starting point for the sudden move higher may be more intriguing technically.
Day traders involved in speculative bets in WTI Crude Oil may have to deal with bouts of rapid value changes tomorrow and Tuesday as positions are taken before the new U.S President is known early on Wednesday morning.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 66.100 to 72.500
Speculators who believe WTI Crude Oil will not be affected by the U.S voting outcome should reconsider their near-term risk assessment. While the resource may not jump wildly higher or sell off badly based on the outcome of the vote, quick choppiness in WTI Crude Oil should certainly be expected. Large players in the commodity know that U.S energy policy will be affected by the outcome of the vote.
Having traversed lower last week, WTI Crude Oil showed the ability to explore depths and test support levels which may be viewed as vulnerable. Trading early this week will likely explore a choppy range which tests known price levels, but upon a winner being announced in the U.S the commodity may find itself demonstrating fast prices that reflect large traders views about the new President’s potential effects on U.S energy supply and origin long-term.
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