- The EUR/USD pair has plummeted to a support level of 1.0343, the lowest for the currency pair since November 2022, before stabilizing around 1.0385 at the time of writing this analysis.
- The performance confirms the strength of the trading strategy that we recommended to our clients which was to sell EUR/USD from every upward level.
- Selling of EUR/USD increased after the US Federal Reserve hinted that it would be more hawkish in 2025.
- As we previously predicted, the bank would be wary of Trump's policies, which typically raise inflation rates in the country.
The US Federal Reserve Cuts Rates but Doesn't Promise More
According to economic calendar data, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points as expected but indicated only 50 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, which is half the cut expected in September. At the same time, the European Central Bank has already cut its main deposit rate four times this year and maintained a cautious stance on further easing. However, many analysts believe that the ECB may need to accelerate policy easing to support the weak Eurozone economy. This disparity was enough to increase EUR/USD selling, and after its recent losses, expectations for the currency pair to move towards parity have strengthened.
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The Eurozone Economy Continues to Suffer Economically and Politically
Confirming this, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Indexes for both manufacturing and services pointed to another, albeit slower, contraction in private sector activity, with Germany and France continuing to perform poorly. Also, Annual inflation rose less than expected to 2.2% from the initial estimate of 2.3%. Adding to the euro's problems is political uncertainty. In this regard, in Germany, the chancellor lost a vote of confidence in parliament as expected. In France, the new government faces significant challenges, including passing the 2025 budget.
Trading Tips:
The pressure on the euro is strong and may continue for some time, so any rebound upwards may be opportunities to sell the euro again this week, which will be fateful for the euro’s closures in 2024
The Future of Germany's Exit from the European Union
The leader of the second strongest party in opinion polls in Germany told Bloomberg television in Berlin: "What we need is free trade between European countries, but we don't need all the bureaucracy." She has "destroyed the socialist policymaking" in the European Union and "destroyed the market mechanism in Europe." Alice Weidel, the candidate for chancellor from the far-right Alternative for Germany party, has criticized the European Union for destroying the country's auto industry and proposed returning the bloc to a free trade area.
In its program for the early elections on February 23, the Alternative for Germany party calls for Germany's exit from the European Union and the Eurozone. Obviously, this would represent a major shift in German politics and break decades of political and economic integration.
EUR/USD Analysis Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart above, the EUR/USD pair is still in its broader downward trend, and the current move towards the support level of 1.0350 will strengthen expectations for the future of parity between the euro and the dollar in the near future. Especially, as the economic and political problems of the Eurozone countries have worsened. The recent losses of the euro and dollar have pushed some technical indicators to oversold levels, led by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD. Meanwhile, currency investors may not care as much about this as they focus on the continued weakness of the currency pair. Currently, the closest support levels for EUR/USD are 1.0330, 1.0250, and 1.0180, respectively. Finally, we still expect any gains for the EUR/USD to be subject to a rapid collapse.
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