My previous AUD/USD signal on Tuesday last week produced a nicely profitable short trade from the bearish reversal at the resistance level of $0.6328.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
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Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6333, $0.6365, or $0.6392.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6299 or $0.6237.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous forecast, I thought that the price was likely to rise over the short term. This was an accurate call as the price rose over most of the day, but the real trade opportunity was on the short side from the bearish reversal at $0.6328.
In today’s AUD/USD forecast I find it hard to predict what the AUD/USD currency pair will do next. There are a few factors worth considering:
Markets may be a bit calmer and tolerant of risk following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which kept rates on hold but effectively announced more quantitative easing, as well as indicating there will be two rate cuts of 0.25% later this year. This has been enough to put a small bid into stock markets, especially US markets. However, the AUD seems to have become uncoupled from risk-on sentiment lately, as all the talk of tariffs on more and more raw minerals and metals is negative for Australia, and this seems to have made the AUD weaker than it would otherwise be.
The US Dollar regained some strength after the FOMC meeting yesterday. This seems to be the major factor which has pushed the price lower over recent hours.
Technically, the support at $0.6299 looks as if it could be strong. It is confluent with the round number at $0.6300 which might strengthen it. So, we may see an end to the bearish move soon if it hits that level,
I am not sure going long at $0.6300 will be a good trade, but it does not look likely that there will be any other obvious opportunity here today.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 12:30pm London time.
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