- The S&P 500 was all over the place in the early hours of Thursday trading.
- Now that we are in the actual cash session, it looks like market participants really don't know what to do.
- I'd say they are probably leaning a bit more to the upside than anything else, but I would also point out that the 200 day EMA has been a bit of a brick wall at this point.
And it's not until we break above there that I think you could consider a move with any type of force, at least to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that breaking above the 200 day EMA could open up a move to the 5,800 level. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 5,600 level, the 5,500 level would be the support level that I think we would go crashing into. Anything below there, things get kind of ugly.
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Risk Appetite in the US and Beyond
I suspect that risk appetite is going to continue to be all over the place. And as usual, Jerome Powell was as clear as mud during the press conference on Wednesday. So, the market really doesn't know what to do. For example, he blamed some of the inflation on Trump tariffs, haven't even been enacted.
So, with that being said, I think you still have a situation where the Federal Reserve will do whatever it can to cause chaos because, quite frankly, they don't know what they're doing. That's been a running problem for a couple of years now. Eventually they will cut rates. That's what the Fed does. But as things stand right now, all they've done is thrown more confusion into the market, and therefore, I think it makes a lot of sense that we go sideways for a while.
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