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Will Kim Jong's Death Affect the Markets?

By DailyForex.com Team
The DailyForex.com team is comprised of analysts and researchers from around the world who watch the market throughout the day to provide you with unique perspectives and helpful analysis that can help improve your Forex trading.

"?The dear leader," aka Kim Jong Il is dead and with him goes the tenuous stability that North Korea had existed under for the past few years. The North Korean dictator's son, Kim Jung Un will likely succeed his father as leader of the rogue state, however questions remain as to whether or not this will mean more instability in an important part of the world or less instability. It's too early to tell for certain, but here are some of the possible scenarios:

North Korea Opens to the West

While unlikely, the possibility everyone is hoping for is that the new "?dear leader" will begin a kind of détente with the West, dismantle his country's nuclear arsenal and begin trading with the entire world. If this happens, expect it to offer a small boost to the world economy with a very large boost to the North Korean economy. Those with money should be prepared to move in to seize new investment opportunities if the chance arises since North Korea could become an important new market and manufacturing hub.

Things Disintegrate Further

The second possibility is that things will disintegrate in the Korea peninsula with Un unable to hold onto power the way his father did. If this happens, we could be in for a very dangerous and bumpy ride indeed. Remember that North Korea is a cash starved nation with very little way of making any money in terms of hard currency. This means that if Un finds his grip slipping, he could decide to sell a thermonuclear device to the highest bidder (likely Al Qeada or some other international terrorist group, though Iran or even a struggling Bashar Assad are not impossible choices). If this happens, even if some city in the West doesn't end up glowing in the dark (just the fact that a terrorist group was able to get their hands on a nuclear device would be enough), it will cause a further depression in world markets, causing the dollar and the Euro to fall further than they already have.

Things Stay Pretty Much the Same

Finally, there is a real possibility that Un will hold onto power in North Korea just as his father, Kim Jong Il did and will manage to learn how to weave around any popular discontent in his country. If this happens, nothing much is likely to change except that we'll have a younger face to look at as the face of state terror, but life will go on as we know it.

What Has Happened So Far

To date, the dollar was boosted slightly by news of the death of Kim Jong Il as investors feared the uncertainty that was sure to reign in the days and weeks ahead. The Euro however remained largely unaffected by the news, though the recent plan by the European Central Bank to act something like the American Federal Reserve (i.e. the lender of last resort) did help stabilize the Euro zone somewhat.

How to Make Money Now

I'd advise looking at shorting some stocks in the South Korean market in the relative short term. Until things shake out over the next few weeks or months, things are likely to be uncertain. The South Korean Won may also be a good bet for shorting since it has already lost a small amount of value on the news of the death of Kim Jong Il. Again however, these benefits are likely to be temporary unless Un is unable to take the reigns of power effectively in North Korea.

DailyForex.com Team
About DailyForex.com Team
The DailyForex.com team is comprised of analysts and researchers from around the world who watch the market throughout the day to provide you with unique perspectives and helpful analysis that can help improve your Forex trading.
 

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