Is the European experiment a failure? It's too soon to tell, but I believe that much of the doom and gloom crowd is simply misinformed about what's going on in the European Union. Of course, had I posed this question around three or four years ago, people would have laughed at me for my naiveté. What do you mean? They would have asked – the EU is a great success story and the euro zone is chugging along beautifully.
The Ongoing Euro Crisis
The big question of course is the still ongoing Euro crisis. While the past week has not seen any major changes in the status quo, meaning that things haven't gotten worse, this also means that things haven't gotten better. Bottom line, the euro is still on shaky ground since the crisis is far from over. Many, many members of the Eurozone are finding it harder to borrow, with Spain still reeling from high borrowing costs and depression level unemployment rates.
Speaking of Spain
Speaking of Spain, they have a whopping 24% unemployment rate right now. This kind of rate is not sustainable in the long term and will eventually lead to civil unrest. This has already begun, with street protests becoming a regular occurrence, however one can expect things to get even worse as times get tougher for the average Spaniard.
The Brain Drain
Another unforeseen problem which the European Union is having is a brain drain, specifically from southern Europe to northern Europe – as jobs have become scarce on the Iberian Peninsula as well as in place like Greece and Italy, more people are making their way north to the wealthier countries of the EU. Places like Germany, France and the Netherlands are seeing their populations grow as those with skills and no jobs look elsewhere for a brighter future.
On the Good Side
The good side however is that Europe still has room for growth. I believe that what we are witnessing is no different than the early days of the American republic. In those days, people tended to think of themselves not as Americans but as Mainers, New Yorkers, Virginians and Marylanders (to name just a few of the original states).
It took a number of years before people stopped thinking of themselves as citizens of the individual colonies and instead began to see themselves as Americans who happened to have been born in one state or another. I believe that we are witnessing the early stages of this in Europe as people begin to realize that the EU means more than just open borders and a common currency. It means being a citizen of the European Union.
The Elephant in the Room
The one big problem which could keep Europe from becoming the melting pot that is America (well, two big problems – the first is the language barrier across different countries, though there are ways around this issue) is that Europe as a whole needs to decide for itself what it will be. Is it is going to be a free trade zone or is it going to be something more akin to the United States of Europe?
If the former, then the EU as we currently know it is likely doomed since a free trade zone doesn't need or even benefit from a common currency and common laws. However, I believe that Europe's politicians will ultimately choose the more practical alternative and find ways to work together more closely so that they can become ever more closely integrated, thus avoiding the potential for a divided Europe slipping into war as it did following the Great Depression in the 1930s.