By: Mike Campbell
With some 70% of American GDP tied to domestic demand for goods and services, the news that consumer confidence has fallen to a 10 month low has come as a major blow as he world’s largest economy tries to put clear water between it and the global financial crisis. The news was credited with wiping 1% off the Dow Jones at yesterday’s close as the market digested a confidence index fall from 55.6 in January to 46 for February. Analysts had anticipated that the Conference Board index would dip by just one point, so the decline took most people by surprise. To put things in perspective, the average value for the index since its inception in 1967 is 95.6 and at the height of the current global crisis in September 2008, it stood at 61.4. The index is supposed to measure the willingness of the American public to part with their cash and is a barometer of demand in the US economy. Against a backdrop of worry about job security and earnings it seems that US consumers remain to be convinced that the worst of the global crisis is really behind them.
On a brighter (and somewhat contradictory) note, several major US retail businesses. Macy’s, Home Depot, Target and Sears have reported a rise in profits for the three months ending in January over the same period in 2009. A year ago, Macy’s and Home Depot posted losses, whereas Target and Sears profits were weak. Macy’s and Target have turned the losses round, reporting profits of $466 and $342 million Dollars respectively. Sears profit figures almost doubled to $430 million over the same period last year and Target’s profit was up by 54% to $936 million.