Population is a dynamic thing. Population growth is driven by the birth rate, but also immigration whereas deaths and emigration reduce the population. In the USA, the number of people entering the job market means that a certain number of new posts need to be created just to stand still (this number is counterbalanced by people of working age dying, retiring or leaving the job market for some other reason). The number of jobs that need to be created for unemployment to stand still in the world’s largest economy is best described as a moveable feast. Most economists put the figure at between 100000 and 150000, but it might be as low as 80000 according to an article published in the Wall Street Journal last summer. Unemployment is a key indicator that the Federal Reserve is considering as it tightens its monetary policy as the “Taper” bites.
According to the latest figures, 192000 jobs were created in March; a figure above even the highest of the estimates for meeting population growth within the US workforce. However, unemployment remains unchanged at 6.7%, meaning that 10.5 million Americans are considered to be unemployed (this figure excludes people no longer deemed to be actively seeking work). The unemployment level remained static despite the fact that January’s job creation figure was revised upwards to 144000 from an initial reading of 129000 and February’s data from 175000 to 197000.
New jobs were created in mining and logging (7000), health care (19000) and in the professional and business services sectors of the economy (57000), however 29000 of these were temporary help service positions.
The fact that unemployment is remaining higher than the average level underlines the fact that the economic recovery remains weak and since the jobs created total is above the level needed to cope with new entries to the job market, it shows that sectors of the economy are continuing to make people unemployed. An additional factor could be a rise in the numbers actively seeking work (a condition required to be “counted” as unemployed) is underway as people become more optimistic at the prospect of finding work.