The price of oil continues it roller coaster ride. The commodity climbed slightly on Friday and some analysts are feeling more confident that its dramatic fall may be over.
U.S. crude rose by nearly $1 a barrel on Friday, and was trading above $52 a barrel by 5:00 a.m. EST. Brent crude for April delivery opened at $59 a barrel and rose above $60 a barrel for the first time this year. Brent has seen gains of around 4 percent last week, tracking similar gains over the previous seven days.
Most oil experts expect a continued period of major volatility ahead but others are more optimistic that prices could edge towards the $100-per-barrel level by year-end.
According to Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, "The good news is that demand is responding and responding quite well and all the indications so far (show) that it's rising thanks to the lower oil prices.”
Sen sees oil prices ranging between $40 and $50 for the first half of 2015, before rising to $70 or $80 in the second half of the year.
Russia Not Worried
Meanwhile, Russia, one of the world’s main oil suppliers, has not been feeling the pinch as much as expected. Although the low oil prices have been affecting the Russian state as tax revenue tumbles along with crude, Russia's energy firms aren't feeling the same pain as many other producers, and some experts see them weathering the cheap oil storm better than their international peers.
They point to two major factors helping the companies in this low-price environment. As the price of oil drops, Moscow's tax rate on oil producers shifts lower placing the financial burden on the state’s coffers.
More importantly, most Russian energy companies conduct business in rubles but their revenues are dollar-denominated. So as the Russian currency has fallen against the dollar, the firms have been insulated from oil's price decline.
"In the short term, there is definitely a natural buffer built into the system through the ruble," Ildar Davletshin, Renaissance Capital oil and gas analyst said. "The ruble has halved over the past 12 months; that's a natural hedge against weak oil prices."
Goldman Sachs energy analyst Geydar Mamedov noted that at $110 oil and 33 rubles to the U.S. dollar, Russian cash flow was roughly the same as now, with oil near $60 and 60 rubles per U.S. dollar.
Weak Demand, Strong $
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the extraordinary fall in the price of oil, which dropped as much as 60 percent from mid-June last year, has been due to several U.S factors--weak demand, a strong dollar and booming U.S. oil production. Friday’s turn-around of these factors drove markets higher. The dollar showed some weakness against a basket of currencies and a major oil producer announced a cost-cutting program in the face of weaker price estimates. In addition, the number of U.S. rigs is falling, with 90 rigs deactivated in late January and 87 more the week ending February 6th.
The debate as to where oil prices are going and when they will settle is anyone’s guess. Giles Keating, global head of private banking and wealth management research at Credit Suisse, said the volatility in oil prices was "just crazy," with the commodity going through what he called a "complicated" bottoming process.
Giles doesn’t rule out that new lows, but believes that the final endpoint will probably be somewhat above where we are now.