As predicted over the last few months, the NASDAQ composite Index topped the 5,000 mark on Monday, the first time in 15 years. The index last touched 5000 in March of 2000, at the very top of the dotcom hysteria and right before the index crashed around 80 percent to a nadir of 1108.49 in October of 2002.
Since then, it’s been a slow but more or less steady climb back up culminating with its 5008.096 close on Monday.
Most analysts say that times have changed and this is not a bubble about to burst once again. Craig Kanarick, CEO of Mouth and co-founder of Razorfish thinks the index will go much higher, partly because the companies in the index are stronger.
"The companies that we're talking about like Apple are much more sophisticated. Steve Jobs was barely at Apple in 2000. But I think also there's a difference in the way people are investing now," he said.
According to Kanarick the dot-com bubble of 2000 burst because of the rash of IPO’s with expectations by investors of 600 percent return in one day. Kanarick believes that today’s market is more professional and less speculative and that "we'll start to see this slow down and head up to 7,000 in the next couple of years. “
Difference of Opinion
Not all analysts discount the possibility of a NASDAQ bubble, attributing its historic return as a response to quantitative easing and zero interest rates and not because of the strength of its companies. Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital: "You have all these artificial props which have lifted up the market and there's no way to sustain the market without those props."
Schiff's isn't convinced that the Nasdaq is different this time and says that "Tech is not as overvalued relative to the rest of the market as it was in 2000, but that doesn't mean it's not a bubble." He cites the overvaluation of some of the larger companies that hold billion dollar caps but haven’t made any money yet.
He expects the Federal Reserve to implement more quantitative easing unlike most analysts that see the Fed raising interests.
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ remains below its all-time record of 5048.62 and intra-day high of 5131.52, both set March 10, 2000 but market watchers say the index is poised to climb higher.
"We're certainly not in bubble territory,'' says James Stack, head of Whitefish, Mt. based Stack Financial Management and editor of market newsletter, Investech Research.
Stack disputes the idea that there is a valuation bubble and believes that the NASDAQ could go up to 5300 or even 5500 before the rally ends, despite the negative prognosis that Wall Street is most probably in the late stages of one of its longest bull markets.
This time around, according to Stack, NASDAQ is more about fundamentals and valuations than pie in the sky expectations, listing corporations such as Apple, Google and Microsoft, Comcast, Starbucks, Tesla, Netflix, Facebook and others.
Bubble or not, today’s NASDAQ is reaching new highs and for investors looking for long time growth, this seems to be the place to be these days.