The question of a Brexit weighs heavily over Prime Minister David Cameron. Britain’s leader is already planning his moves in anticipation of an in-out referendum which he expects will be held not later than June 2016 and he is moving full steam ahead in his efforts to remain a member of the Eurozone.
According to some sources, Downing Street is preparing to issue a document explaining to the British public "the changes, the benefits of the changes to Britain, and why therefore we need to stay in the EU" which will be sent all British households.
The dossier is being compared to a pamphlet issued and distributed to British citizens in 1975 by then PM Harold Wilson ahead of a referendum setting out an "independent" government analysis of his renegotiation.
It follows on the heels of a similar and heavily criticized move by the Government ahead of last year’s Scottish independence referendum when more than 2.5 million booklets were sent out urging people to vote to remain in the UK. The production effort cost around £720,000.
Eurosceptics Resigning
Within Parliament, there is growing sentiment among Cabinet ministers for the country to opt out of the EU at this time. Many conservative ’eurosceptics’ are considering resigning their positions so they can join the ‘leave’ campaign. Steve Baker, co-chairman of the Conservatives for Britain group which campaigns for an exit, puts the number of these ministers at more than half the Conservative Party.
According to a review released by the Telegraph, there are five major issues at stake regarding Britain’s retention of its membership in the European Union.
Analysts say that the benefit for going it alone would amount to an economic benefit to the UK of only 1.1 per cent of their GDP. However the net loss would be small in the short term.
Within Parliament, there is growing sentiment among Cabinet ministers for the country to opt out of the EU at this time
According to the CBI, by leaving the Union businesses would have to comply with European principles without being able to influence them. But business leaders say that there would be little change in EU trade, especially if a free trade agreement was in place.
The question of immigration would have to be considered. As a separate entity, it would have to deal with outside immigration on an individual basis with a return to border-controls. Some have suggested implementing an Australia-style point system for immigrants.
According to the Telegraph, as a non-member of the EU, the UK could lose total free movement of its people. Expats in Europe as well as British tourists could face reams of visa paperwork. On the other hand, freedom of movement can be offered to EU citizens as a condition of free trade.
There would, of course be a considerable amount of red tape all around. British businesses could do better without having to comply with EU regulations but to cut the red tape, Parliament would have to repeal all EU rules that are currently in effect, not an easy undertaking.
Cameron’s Demands
Cameron has his own major issues at stake in the referendum. Among his key demands is getting an ‘opt-out’ for Britain from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”. This would ensure that the UK is never forced to join a new European super state.
The PM is also adamant on ensuring the use of the British Pound as the nation’s currency. He would like European treaties to state that the EU is a multi-currency union, removing references to the euro as the EU’s official currency.
He would also like to see Parliament with more autonomy and less influenced by EU law on domestic affairs while preventing the Eurozone countries from forcing new rules on the nine other member states including Britain that are not in the single currency.
Considerations have already begun that could provide a so-called “red card” system to allow parliaments to block new EU directives and in Paris and Germany efforts have begun on drafting new arrangements that would guarantee protections for the City of London.
The debate on ‘Brexit’ will continue to make headlines well into 2016 with the final outcome not be known until the referendum is over.