Before we get too deeply into the question of the UK’s referendum on continued EU membership and whether the British PM can convince a sceptical public that Britain is better off within the EU under the terms of his newly minted deal, let us remember that it was David Cameron’s Conservatives that pledged to give the nation an in/out referendum in the first place. Against that backdrop, claims by the PM that a vote to leave would be a “step in the dark” can be judged in context – this was a debate that the nation never needed to have in the first place. This has always been more about politics than economics.
Last week, agreement was obtained from the 27 other EU partners largely securing the (arguably modest) reforms that Britain was asking for in the universal hope that the UK would continue to be an EU state. Writing a foreword in a British Government white paper which sets out the agreement, Mr Cameron stated:
“We have secured a new settlement to give the United Kingdom special status in the European Union. As this White Paper sets out, we will be permanently out of ever closer union, ensuring we can never be part of a European super-state. There will be tough new restrictions on access to our welfare system for EU migrants, so that people who come to our country can no longer take out before putting something in. And we have also secured vital protections for our economy, with a full say over the rules of the free trade single market, while remaining outside the Eurozone.”
In presenting the agreement to parliament, the PM announced that the referendum would take place on 23rd June 2016. This, at least, reduces the period of uncertainty whilst the UK makes up its mind. Sterling has weakened against the Euro and has fallen to its lowest level against the Dollar since 2009 as investors fret about the decision and the potential ramifications of a “Brexit”. Already, claim and counterclaim abound, but more of that later.