Expectation has been building that David Cameron’s “better deal” for Britain within the EU will emerge by the end of the forthcoming EU summit. Ignoring the Brits for a moment, nobody seems to want to see the UK end its membership of the EU; both on a European level and on the wider global stage. The British people are much more equivocal in their support of continued membership and the eventual referendum result is likely to see a national split with roughly even numbers for and against continued membership.
Cameron’s position is that, having secured his “tough” new deal for the UK he will be able to strongly endorse continued membership as being clearly in the national interest. Detractors claim that his new deal (if approved) doesn’t go nearly far enough and all but maintains the status quo ante. Cameron will have to sell modest accords as a major victory if he hopes to avoid a (probably) catastrophic “Brexit”.
The President of the Council of Europe, Donald Tusk, believes that the EU nation states have “no choice” but to agree to the reforms that the UK is asking for. France remains to be convinced about aspects of financial regulation changes which it believes could give non-Euro Britain an advantage over Euro bloc nations. Poland and three other countries still have objections over welfare reforms for migrant workers in the UK. However, a draft deal is expected to be circulated 48 hours ahead of the summit.
In a letter to all 28 member states, Mr Tusk noted: "After my consultations in the last hours I have to state frankly: there is still no guarantee that we will reach an agreement. We differ on some political issues and I am fully aware that it will be difficult to overcome them. Therefore I urge you to remain constructive.”
Stating the blindingly obvious, he commented that the summit "will be a crucial moment for the unity of our Union and for the future of the United Kingdom's relations within Europe". He said that negotiations were very advanced and that failure to strike an agreement "would be a defeat both for the UK and the European Union, but a geopolitical victory for those who seek to divide us".
Even if Messrs Tusk and Cameron can get a deal signed, the real work will only be beginning in the UK to convince a largely cynical and jaded public that the Brussels club, so berated in the media, is worth staying a part of.