Hot on the heels of the furore following the chairman of the British Chambers of Commerce (John Longworth) comments that the UK could have a bright future outside of the EU, which led to his resignation, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has waded into the debate. According to the CBI, a recent survey that they commissioned which involved 773 UK businesses, overwhelmingly endorsed remaining in the EU. 80% of respondents backed remaining in the EU; this contrasts with public opinion polls which show a slender majority in favour of continued membership (51 to 49%). From an economic perspective, the opinion of business leaders on what is in the UK’s longer term interests is more compelling than the opinion of Joe public, but it will be the populace that decides the fate of Britain’s membership of the EU.
Whilst the CBI will not align itself with any of the pressure groups campaigning for or against continued membership of the EU, they are not going to be shy on making their feelings clear, judging by the comments of Carolyn Fairbairn, the organisation’s director-general: "The message from our members is resounding - most want the UK to stay in the EU because it is better for their business, jobs and prosperity. Walking away makes little economic sense and risks throwing away the many benefits we gain from being part of the EU."
Whilst stating that the CBI would not align itself with either side, Ms Fairbairn said that the CBI will make the economic case for Britain’s continued membership of the EU. She noted that: "A minority of members want to leave the EU. We will continue to respect and reflect their views and campaign for EU reform to get a better deal for all businesses. However, most CBI members are unconvinced that alternatives to full membership would offer the same opportunities. We have yet to see those who seek to leave the EU present a compelling vision of what this would mean for jobs and growth."
Analysis of the survey data shows that just one business in twenty believed that their company’s best interests lay with a UK outside of the EU; 15% are currently unsure on the matter. Support for a Brexit was stronger amongst the smaller and medium-sized firms responding to the survey.
In what sounds like a bad case of sour grapes, one of the groups campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, Vote Leave, complained that the survey was unrepresentative, since just 0.1% of UK businesses employ more than 250 staff, and therefore the outcome was skewed towards the opinions of larger firms. Their chief executive, Matthew Elliott noted: "It's welcome news that the CBI has seen sense and won't be seeking to campaign in the referendum." In his opinion, the CBI had "consistently misrepresented the views of business on the issue, acting as little more than the Voice of Brussels".
It would be refreshing if those campaigning to leave the EU could put forward a clear “roadmap” of Britain’s future outside of the bloc and why they seem to think that the UK would enjoy the same deal with its former EU partners with no apparent downside if the UK does chose to leave. They can have no idea if the bilateral trade agreements they hope for will not disadvantage the UK over the position that it currently enjoys; how long these accords will take to agree and implement; nor what will happen to the UK in the vacuum which would surely follow a vote to leave. It ought to be the case that those proposing to leave the EU should have a very clear understanding of what that reality would mean, but the debate turns on feelings rather than facts, for the moment, at least.