Data from the US Department of Labor suggests that the world’s largest economy created 160000 new jobs in April. The figure is sharply down on the March level and both the March and February figures have been revised down on the availability of more comprehensive data. The March figure was trimmed from 215000 to 20800 whereas the revised February figure came in at 233000 from an initial estimate of 242000.
Unemployment in the USA stands unchanged at 5% meaning it has remained below the long-term average value of 5.82% (between 1948 and 2016; range 2.5 to 10.8%) and consequently, the less than inspiring job creation figure for April will perhaps not play into the upcoming decision on interest rates by the Federal Reserve next month. The Federal Reserve planned to increase rates up to four times across 2016 with rates rising by 1% from their current level. However, with jitters over the weak oil price and out-and-out panic over the perceived weakness of the Chinese economy during much of the first quarter of the year, the Federal Reserve has changed this timetable. It is thought that the Fed would like to see rates rise by 0.5% this year, in a move to restore rates to historic levels and give it room for manoeuvre during a future economic crisis. This will probably come as two separate 0.25% hikes, so odds are that June may still be seen as the opportune time to make the first of these rises.
On the positive side of the balance sheet, average hourly earnings picked up by 2.5% which is well above the most recent US inflation figure (March) which came in at 0.9%. It means that US households will have a little more disposable income available to them which is always good news as 70% of US output is consumed by the domestic market.