The decision of the British people about remaining in the EU or leaving is now under three weeks away. The Brexit campaigners are yet to make a single definitive statement on their vision for a post EU relationship between the UK and its remaining members. Instead, they whistle down the wind and claim that it will be business as normal between the EU and the world’s fifth largest economy. If the UK is to “take control” of its own borders, then a post Brexit UK could not be a member of EFTA (such as Switzerland and Norway) since it requires an agreement to allow freedom of citizens to live and work anywhere within the EFTA region and also to contribute to the EU. This option would be cheaper than the status quo, perhaps, but would require the UK to comply with EU directives over the single market and deprive it of a say in drafting legislation and directives. That many polls still show leave and remain votes to be broadly even shows that the EU is deeply unpopular with the British electorate and that economic factors may not carry the day.
The latest organisation to jump onto the “Remain conspiracy” with flawed logic (i.e. opposed to Brexit) is OECD. OECD is warning that leaving the EU would cause a large, negative shock to the UK economy: "The weaker UK economy, as well as possible new restrictions after exit from the European Union, would lower net migration inflows, adding to the supply-side challenges by reducing the size of the labour force. Some of these effects could be offset by reductions in domestic regulatory burdens, but the overall net effect on living standards would be strongly negative. By 2030, UK GDP could be over 5% lower than otherwise if exit had not occurred. Weaker demand in the European economies also adversely affects the rest of the world, with GDP in the Brics and other non-OECD economies lowered by over half a percentage point by 2018. Within these groups, Turkey and Russia are relatively heavily hit, reflecting their comparatively strong trade linkages with the European economies."
OECD estimates that a Brexit could reduce UK GDP by 3% compared to where it would be if the UK remains in the UK by 2020 – just four years down the line. The rest of the EU would probably see GDP fall by 1% as a consequence of Brexit. It warned that the UK’s economic dynamism and productivity would be harmed by “lower trade openness”.
The OECD comments underline the “obvious elephant” that migration to the UK is beneficial to the economy. Had that not been the case, Labour and Conservative governments would have acted to stem immigration from non-EU nations. Neither party took a strong stance in defence of migration because of its perceived unpopularity with the electorate, of course. Very few people are tempted to move to a new country unless they believe they will find good employment opportunities. There is little convincing evidence that migrants are taking work which would be done by native workers: if employers could find local staff (in general) they prefer to use it.